Understanding Coastline Erosion

Yes. On October 8, 2026, NOAA said El Niño "continues to strengthen." [1]

• NOAA: a "strong-to-very strong El Niño" is "likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance)." [1]
• Chance it ranks stronger than any El Niño since 1950: 83% for October to December, 70% for November to January. [1]
• Stronger events make impacts more likely, "though not guaranteed." [1]
• Next NOAA update: November 12, 2026. [1]

During El Niño, warm water moves east across the Pacific.

1. Normally, the trade winds blow west and pile up warm water near Asia. The sea there sits about 1 1/2 feet higher than off South America. [2]
2. During El Niño, the trade winds "relax." Warm water moves east. [2]
3. Kelvin waves form "in response to the weakening of the trade winds, as a result of El Niño." [3]
4. About half of each wave heads north along the west coast of the Americas. [3]
5. Warm water takes up more space. Kelvin waves "temporarily raise sea level, by about 6 to 12 inches or more." [3]
6. Among El Niño's usual impacts, NOAA lists: "High tide flooding could become a higher risk in parts of the U.S., especially on the West Coast." [4]

On September 25, 2026, NOAA's California Current team said "additional warming along the coast is likely to occur within the next few weeks" from Kelvin waves. [5]

A popular name, not a scientific one, for exceptionally high tides. [6]

• Cause: the sun, moon and Earth line up, and the moon is closest to Earth. Around the New Year, Earth is also closest to the sun. [7] STATEDCalifornia Coastal Commission
• Size: "one to two feet higher than average high tides." [7] STATEDCalifornia Coastal Commission
• Timing: they "occur naturally and regularly," are "predictable and expected," and "are not an everyday occurrence." [7] STATEDCalifornia Coastal Commission
• "Spring tide" has "nothing to do with the season of spring." The term comes from the tide "springing forth." [8]
• This winter: "scientists anticipate that California will experience a historically strong or 'super' El Niño, along with Kelvin waves which cause a temporary increase in sea level." [9] STATEDCalifornia Coastal Commission
• Sea level: "King Tides themselves are not related to climate change, but they allow us to experience what higher sea level will be like." [7] STATEDCalifornia Coastal Commission

NOAA's highest predicted tides fall in late November, late December and late January. [10]

Highest predicted tides at Newport Bay Entrance: [10]

• Dec 24, 8:26 a.m.: 7.17 ft
• Dec 23, 7:38 a.m.: 7.08 ft
• Jan 22, 8:23 a.m.: 7.04 ft
• Nov 25, 8:32 a.m.: 7.02 ft
• Dec 25, 9:15 a.m.: 7.01 ft
• Jan 21, 7:35 a.m.: 6.99 ft
• February's highest: Feb 19, 7:30 a.m.: 6.57 ft

Two zero points: NOAA's tide predictions use MLLW; the City's gauge uses NAVD88. [10] [12]

• MLLW is based on the tides: NOAA's "reference datum for predictions, bench mark publication and nautical charting." [13]
• NAVD88 is a fixed reference for land. "Most elevations on land are given relative to a geodetic datum such as NAVD88," NOAA says. [14]
• At NOAA's Newport Bay Entrance station, NAVD88 is 0.18 feet (about 2 inches) above MLLW. [15]
• NOAA says this kind of relationship "should not be extrapolated away from a particular location without correction or interpolation." [13]

The City says unusually high tides and El Niño can increase the risk of coastal flooding, beach erosion and storm damage. [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach

• Higher than predicted: "Recently observed water levels have been approximately 18–22 inches (about two feet) above predicted astronomical tides." [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach
• More to come: the City expects "several periods of unusually high tides in October, November and December 2026." [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach
• Areas the City names: Newport Harbor, Balboa Island, Newport Island, the Balboa Peninsula, the Finley Tract and West Newport. [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach

The City says its steps "cannot eliminate flood risk." [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach

All items: [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach

• Sand: with the County of Orange, moving "approximately 100,000 cubic yards of sand from the mouth of the Santa Ana River to the West Newport shoreline near the jetties."
• Berms: maintained, and reinforced "as needed in response to elevated surf and storm conditions."
• Pumps and crews: may be deployed. Street closures "may be implemented as conditions and public safety needs warrant."
• Seawalls: "Many Newport Harbor seawalls are privately owned."
• Repairs: faster permit review for certain repairs to homes "damaged by Tropical Storm Rachel." See newportbeachca.gov/floodrecovery.

Free sandbags [11] CONFIRMED Independent coverage of this has not yet been located.

• Prefilled: Corporation Yard, 592 Superior Ave.; Marina Park, 1600 W. Balboa Blvd.; Fire Station No. 1 (Temporary Station), East Ocean Front Parking Lot, near Balboa Pier.
• Empty bags: any Newport Beach fire station, or Lifeguard Headquarters, 70 Newport Pier.
• Questions: 949-644-3055.
• Sandbags "may not prevent flooding during severe conditions."

Alerts [11] CONFIRMED Independent coverage of this has not yet been located.

• Newport Notified: sign up at NBPD.org.
• Wireless Emergency Alerts: no sign-up needed.
• City social media (@cityofnewportbeach): "not a substitute for emergency alerts."

The City's checklist [11] STATEDCity of Newport Beach

• Clear gutters and drains.
• Check roofs, windows and doors for leaks.
• Secure outdoor items.
• Consider sandbags or temporary barriers.
• Move vehicles off flood-prone streets.
• Review your insurance.
• Prepare an emergency kit.
• "Never drive or walk through flooded roadways."

Read in order: from the open Pacific to the shoreline.

• Coriolis effect: Earth's spin bends moving air and water, to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern. [16] [3]
• Trade winds: "the prevailing easterly winds that circle the Earth near the equator." [17]
• Walker Circulation: "a massive east-to-west air flow" over the equatorial Pacific. [4]
• El Niño: "unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific." [2]
• La Niña: the opposite, "unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific." [18]
• ENSO: the cycle between them. El Niño is the warm phase; La Niña is the cold phase. [18]
• Equatorial ocean: OUR WORDS the part of the ocean near the equator.
• Thermocline: "the transition layer between warmer mixed water at the ocean's surface and cooler deep water below." [19]
• Kelvin wave: slow, flat waves of warm water that do not break on shore like other waves. [3]
• King tide: a popular name for exceptionally high tides. [6]
• Spring tide: higher tides at new and full moons; nothing to do with the season. [8]
• MLLW: Mean Lower Low Water, the zero point for NOAA's tide predictions. [13] [15]
• NAVD88: a fixed reference for land elevations; the City's gauge uses it. [13] [12]

• City of Newport Beach, El Niño and Coastal Flood Preparedness
• NOAA Tide Predictions, Newport Bay Entrance (9410580)
• City of Newport Beach water level gauge, Balboa Yacht Basin. The City notes: "All data are provisional."
• UC Davis Coastal Oceanography Group, Newport Bay water level monitoring site, "installed in collaboration with and thanks to the support of the Newport Beach Harbor Department."
• NOAA Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlook. NOAA notes: "Real-time weather conditions may still cause flooding outside of dates identified in this product."
• NOAA Coastal Inundation Dashboard
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (monthly)
• California Coastal Commission, King Tides Project
• National Weather Service, San Diego
• FloodSmart.gov (flood insurance)